Euro's Fundamental Path Will Be Defined By Critical ECB Rate Decision

In the forthcoming week, the euro may once again find a dominant, fundamental trend from its mature and wide range against the benchmark US dollar. That is because buried amid second-tier economic indicators we will receive the European Central Bank’s (ECB) first rate decision for the new year. While the policy authority’s announcements have been top economic fodder for the months, this one is particularly important as it will reveal whether President Jean-Claude Trichet and his fellow monetary policy makers will eventually take the region’s target rate to near-zero levels like its US and Japanese counterparts.

In the forthcoming week, the euro may once again find a dominant, fundamental trend from its mature and wide range against the benchmark US dollar. That is because buried amid second-tier economic indicators we will receive the European Central Bank’s (ECB) first rate decision for the new year. While the policy authority’s announcements have been top economic fodder for the months, this one is particularly important as it will reveal whether President Jean-Claude Trichet and his fellow monetary policy makers will eventually take the region’s target rate to near-zero levels like its US and Japanese counterparts.

So, how can we gather this from one decision when the main rate is still at 2.50 percent? Because this decision will define the pace the ECB is willing to keep as they come dangerously close to the ever-dreaded zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). Looking to economists forecasts, a heavy consensus favors a 50 basis point cut to 2.00 percent. This would follow on the heels of the Bank of England’s own half a percent reduction this past week (though this was a significant deceleration from the clip the British policy authority had previous been running at). Interestingly enough, the market is prepared for something similar. Herein lies the potential for the euro’s strength to come under serious scrutiny. Overnight index swaps show market participants are pricing in a little more than 75 basis points worth of easing over the coming year. This would mean that the ECB would only lower rates once more and by a conservative quarter-percentage point.

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