Sunday, January 11, 2009

Japanese Yen Forecast Remains Bullish Amid Financial Market Distress

An empty week of economic data left the Japanese Yen to trade purely off of shifts in risk sentiment, and a downturn in risky asset classes pushed the currency higher against the US dollar and other major counterparts.

An empty week of economic data left the Japanese Yen to trade purely off of shifts in risk sentiment, and a downturn in risky asset classes pushed the currency higher against the US dollar and other major counterparts. Indeed, the USD/JPY lost almost all of its recent gains, and Japanese Yen momentum continues to favor USD/JPY weakness. A shift in sentiment led our DailyFX+ trading signals to buy the Yen aggressively through end-of-week trade, and the move proved prescient ahead of Friday’s substantive tumbles in Japanese Yen crosses.

Outlook for the highly risk-sensitive Japanese Yen will subsequently depend on the trajectory in global risky asset classes, and overall momentum favors further losses. An absolutely dismal US Non Farm Payrolls report on Friday reminded traders of the severity of ongoing economic difficulties in the world’s largest economy, and few express hopes that conditions will post significant improvement through the foreseeable future. As such, we would argue that “de-leveraging” trades, or assets that benefit from underperformance in equity markets, are likely to continue to gain. Disappointing outlook for Japanese economic conditions notwithstanding, the Japanese Yen will likely benefit from these dynamics.


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